Huh.
So this data is wrong?
Or Superdata doesn't count Rockstar Launcher number?
Either SuperData doesn't count Rockstar Launcher numbers at all or their original "407K in first month" figure was in fact for all sales (the wording was confusing), and the new 1M+ number is for all sales once more, in which case our data conflicts with theirs in a major way. We can't know for sure who is right, SuperData never says how they got any particular piece of data and lists many methods under their methodology like tracking credit card statements and even "being friendly with the publishers".
As for our Windows numbers, as with all of our numbers they are sample-based research, which means they aren't just "raw data" from XBOX Game Bar. The estimates are calculated by extrapolating percentages from our sample to the overall userbase. Take political polls for example - they poll 1000 people in a place with a million people and they don't tell you that 700 people will vote for Blue candidate and 300 for Red candidate, they tell you 700 thousand people will vote Blue aka 700.000 people or 70%.
It's true that this sample is Windows 10 users only, but that only affects the accuracy of the numbers if a game is unusually more or less popular on other platforms compared to Windows 10. This is a flaw in all sample-based research, applies to any other possible sample bias, and is why confidence levels and margins of error exist for this data, and why we have an ever-growing database of confirmed sales data that feeds an AI that detect biases in our sample and corrects estimates.
To conclude, mathematically speaking we are 90% confident that the real figure for RDR2 is somewhere 4-4.5M owners right now (the quoted tweet was from a month ago). We have no idea how much of that is EGS - we were just relaying VideGameBiz's report of SuperData's findings.
Even if all these people are using better metrics...I still find it hard to believe they would all of a sudden have accurate data from individual storefronts on a month by month basis. Seems like too big a of a leap for it to be happening as of late.
It's happening as of late because I got into it as of late. The developer of SteamSpy sure as fuck has no reason to post these numbers, and SuperData has been around for a while but their service is expensive as fuck and they rarely put out any concrete info outside of it.
EPIC and Valve are both private companies. Anything coming out of EGS should be looked as noise until they themselves post infographics. And even then those infographics need to be carefully examined since they fudge numbers using free game accounts, moneyhats, fortnite etc. And with Valve the only legit data we have is # of reviews + their end of the year platinum, gold, silver and bronze lists.
With something like Rockstar game launcher I don't see how anyone would have their data except Take-Two right now. Their earnings call in a few weeks should be the only reliable source. Assuming they even mention and not fudge their numbers too.
As for how we get the data, I refer to the method described above or
our official about page. I use both Epic's official info graphics and Valve's publicly available data (reviews, concurrent players, end of year lists) and even individual developer/publishers sale data statements, but these things mostly already fall in line with our estimates.