Discussion 2025 Steam peak CCU prediction thread

[spindoctor]

May 2025
game - guess/prediction
DOOM The Dark Ages - 100k

Where did this 100k come from

When we were talking in the evening you said 20k. 100k was my guess.

 

[texhnolyze]

This game might worth a watch too.

​

 

[Arc]

https://steamdb.info/app/3017860/charts/

It's really early, but Doom the Dark Ages CCUs are really soft. It might beat Doom 2016 but I don't think it gets anywhere near Doom Eternal. The high price and Game Pass did it no favors.

Edit: I also forgot about the Advanced Access as well.

 

[Paul]

Doom the Dark Ages CCUs are really soft.

Damn, you are not wrong. I expected even with gamepass the game would have a massive hype and go over 100K easily, but that seems very unlikely even on sunday.

 

[spindoctor]

I'm very interested to see what Fantasy Life ends up getting. The game has been high in the top sellers list since a day or two before the deluxe edition launched and user impressions are extremely positive. It seems like it's going to be a hit for Level-5.

 

[Arc]

Roadcraft and Fantasy Life doing better than Doom wasn't on my bingo card.

 

[STHX]

There is so much money left on the table for good "Animal Crossing Likes" on pc, just like Sims-like as we saw with Inzoi

 

[edin]

Holy at Fantasy Life i already.

 

[edin]

Results so far

May 2025
game - guess/prediction - result
DOOM The Dark Ages - 100k - 31.5k
Capcom Fighting Collection 2 - 10k - 3.1k
Yasha: Legends of hte Demon Blade - 2k - 781
RoadCraft - 30k - 33.7k
Fantasy Life i - 2k - 65k
Monster Train 2 - 30k - 18.5k
Mobile Suit Gundam SEED Battle Destiny Remastered - 1k - 3k

 

[STHX]

Mobile Suit Gundam SEED Battle Destiny Remastered - 1k - 3k

 

[edin]

Nightreign did 313k in the end. I predicted 200k.
Fuga 3 was 193 oof. I predicted 1k.

 

[Paul]

Wow, sex sells even more than I expected and Stella Blade is doing more than twice my estimate (100K against 42K) and it's not even weekend yet. Reviews are universally positive too. ShiftUP is probably quite happy. I wonder if the money from PC version is split between them and Sony? Since Sony is listed as publisher for the PC version too (so it is not like Death Stranding which had different PC publisher). If that is the case, then this is the most successful singleplayer Sony game on PC with quite some margin.

 

[edin]

Back to this after a few months. Games this month:

Sept 4
Hell is Us -
Hollow Knight Silksong -
Kemono Teatime -

Sept 5
Cronos: The New Dawn -
Daemon X Machina: Titanic Scion -
Everybody's Golf Hot Shots -
NBA 2K26 -
Shuten Order -

Sept 9
Bubsy in : the Purrfect Collection -

Sept 10
Garfield Kart 2: All You Can Drift -

Sept 12
Borderlands 4 -

Sept 15
LEGO Voyagers -
Little Witch in the Woods -

Sept 16
Henry Halfhead

Sept 17
Deep Rock Galactic Survivor

Sept 18
Class of Heroes 3 Remaster -
HYKE: Northern Light(s) -
Moros Protocol -
Platypus Reclayed -

Sept 19
Dying Light: The Beast -
Marisa of Liartop Mountain -
Towa and the Guardians of the Sacred Tree -
Trails in the Sky 1st Chapter -
Baby Steps -
Blippo+ -
Slime Rancher 2 -

Sept 25
Aquapazza: Aquaplus Dream Match -
Mamorukun ReCurse! -
Silent Hill f -
Sonic Racing: CrossWorlds -

Sept 26
Atelier Resleriana -
Cladun X3 -
EA Sports FC 26 -
Hotel Barcelona -
Pac-Man World 2 Re-Pac -

Sept 30
Final Fantasy Tactics: The Ivalice Chronicles -
LEGO Party -
Nicktoons & the Dice of Destiny -
Train Sim World 6 -

Go wild.

 

[Paul]

Hell is Us - 8K
Silksong - 620K
Cronos - 10K
Borderlands 4 - 280K
Dying Light Beast- 120K
Silent Hill F - 20K

 

[spindoctor]

Hell is Us - 25k
Silksong - 270k
Cronos - 8k

These are the 'big' ones for today. I'll edit in more later, maybe.

EDIT - Hot Shots Golf is out today as well. I'll go with 4k for that one.

 

[Paul]

Silksong - 270k

lmao, sweet summer child (535K already, my 620K will be shattered like nothing)

I do not get it personally, have zero desire to play these, but somehow they tapped into a huge market.

 

[spindoctor]

You see, what I actually meant to say was one million two hundred and seventy thousand but the one million was silent

 

[Panda Pedinte]

I'm a bit late but here are mh guesses

Sept 4
Hell is Us - 2.5k
Hollow Knight Silksong - 720k
Kemono Teatime - 1.2k

Sept 5
Cronos: The New Dawn - 12k
Daemon X Machina: Titanic Scion - 1.3k
Everybody's Golf Hot Shots - 700
NBA 2K26 - 8k
Shuten Order - 1.5k

Sept 9
Bubsy in : the Purrfect Collection - 900

Sept 10
Garfield Kart 2: All You Can Drift - 650

Sept 12
Borderlands 4 - 30k

Sept 15
LEGO Voyagers - 4k
Little Witch in the Woods - 2.5k

Sept 16
Henry Halfhead - 1k

Sept 17
Deep Rock Galactic Survivor - 45k

Sept 18
Class of Heroes 3 Remaster - 400
HYKE: Northern Light(s) - 980
Moros Protocol - 2.5k
Platypus Reclayed - 300

Sept 19
Dying Light: The Beast - 45k
Marisa of Liartop Mountain - 2k
Towa and the Guardians of the Sacred Tree - 690
Trails in the Sky 1st Chapter - 9k
Baby Steps - 7k
Blippo+ - 1.4k
Slime Rancher 2 - 74k

Sept 25
Aquapazza: Aquaplus Dream Match - 809
Mamorukun ReCurse! - 740
Silent Hill f - 70k
Sonic Racing: CrossWorlds - 65k

Sept 26
Atelier Resleriana - 13k
Cladun X3 - 1.8k
EA Sports FC 26 - 300k
Hotel Barcelona - 1.2k
Pac-Man World 2 Re-Pac - 650

Sept 30
Final Fantasy Tactics: The Ivalice Chronicles - 900
LEGO Party - 22k
Nicktoons & the Dice of Destiny - 900
Train Sim World 6 - 450

 

[lashman]

Sept 4
Hell is Us - 2.5k
Hollow Knight Silksong - 720k
Kemono Teatime - 1.2k

 

[Panda Pedinte]

Just a bit

I only saw the numbers pulled by Silksong I have no idea how well the other games did and we still have the weekend as it usually is the day mostly people will play.

 

[spindoctor]

Okay well Silksong has claimed it's first victims.

Hell is Us peak is currently < 4k
Hot Shots Golf < 2k

It'll rise over the weekend probably but so far, those are pretty disastrous numbers.

 

[Paul]

Cronos has bad numbers too. Launching new IPs is hard.

 

[spindoctor]

Little bit late but I'm predicting Borderlands 4 at 420k