Discussion Q1 2025 Steam peak CCU prediction thread

[edin]

Decided to make this a thread after all. Quoted all (I hope) the messages where folks predicted CCU for Jan/Feb/March games. If you haven't, feel free to do so here. Quote yourself and add more if you need.

I guess I'll go with the following:

Jan 2025
Dynasty Warriors Origins - 25k
Blade Chimera - 1k
Assetto Corsa EVO (early access) - 7k
Tales of Graces f Remastered - 8k
Ender Magnolia (leaving early access) - 4k
Final Fantasy VII Rebirth - 18k
Synduality - 10k
Tails of Iron II - 3k
Virtua Fighter 5 REVO - 8k
Hello Kitty Island Adventure - 3k
Spider-Man 2 - 30k
Citizen Sleeper 2 - 1k

February 2025
Kingdom Come Deliverance 2 - 300K
Civilization 7 - 500K
Trails through Daybreak 2 - 2k
KOF XIII Global Match - 500
Lost Records Bloom & Rage Part 1 - 2k
Like a Dragon Pirate Yakuza in Hawaii - 10k
Yugioh Collection - 5k
Avowed - 20K
Monster Hunter Wilds - 1.2 mill

March 2025
Two Point Museum - 2k
Ever 17/Never 7 - Hope it doesn't get blocked
Suikoden - 5k
DOA Venus Vacation - 2k
Atelier Yumia - 11k
The First Berserker Khazan - 10k
Assassin's Creed Shadows - 20k
Football Manager 2025 - 60k

April 2025
Last of Us: Part 2 - 15K
Fatal Fury City of the Wolves - 10k
The Hundred Line Last Defense Academy - 1k

Some of them are definitely conservative and a few shooting high but we will see.

If this ends up being interesting, I'll do a monthly thread for it. I just included Feb etc since I may as well.

I expect Rebirth to do more than 20k, despite the port. Remake was held back by Sony exclusivity and EGS exclusivity, while Rebirth is only affected by one of those.

Here are my CCU Steam Peak guesses for upcoming notable videogames (notable meaning those that I know about/am potentially interested in):

FF7 Rebirth - 45K
Eternal Strands - 4K
SpiderMan 2 - 52K
Kingdom Come Deliverance 2 - 320K
Civilization 7 - 400K
Avowed - 65K
Monster Hunter Wilds - 850K
Assassin's Creed Shadows - 88K
Last of Us: Part 2 - 42K

It will be interesting to see how right/wrong I was.

Rebirth - 50k
Eternal Strands -
Spider-Man 2 - 30k
Kingdom Come Deliverance 2 - 250k
Civ 7 - 300k
Avowed - 15k
Monster Hunter Wilds - 1 million
AC Shadows - 35k
TLOU 2 - 15k

 

[Paul]

I like this guessing game, just 5 days until first contender

 

[edin]

These games are now out. Might be premature, but I'll update on Monday if any changes:

Put my guesses (will include others as well for games that more people guess) followed by rounded actual ccu.

Dynasty Warriors Origins - 25k -> reality = 53k
Blade Chimera - 1k -> reality = 612
Assetto Corsa EVO (early access) - 7k -> reality = 28k
Tales of Graces f Remastered - 8k -> reality = 2.8k

(Jan 18th)

 

[spindoctor]

Ok no position to guess all the smaller games but I'll give my estimates for the more notable ones;

Jan 2025
Dynasty Warriors Origins - 53k ( <-- what an accurate guess holy shit )
Final Fantasy VII Rebirth - 28k
Spider-Man 2 - 55k

February 2025
Kingdom Come Deliverance 2 - 350k
Civilization 7 - 480k
Avowed - 24k
Like a Dragon Pirate Yakuza in Hawaii - 22k
Monster Hunter Wilds - 1.35 million

March 2025
Atelier Yumia - 8k
Assassin's Creed Shadows - 55k
Football Manager 2025 - 95k

 

[edin]

Ok no position to guess all the smaller games but I'll give my estimates for the more notable ones;

Jan 2025
Dynasty Warriors Origins - 53k ( <-- what an accurate guess holy shit )

F

Via Mor

 

[lashman]

Via @Mor

 

[Paul]

Looks like I might have been a tad too optimistic about FF7 Rebirth, unless it grows further on the weekend, which is possible.