First of all, AW2 isn't going to be a success because as AW1 or any other Remedy game, they don't have enough fans.I doubt this. Epic spent half a billion dollars in an effort to push Steam out of business. It's very unlikely that they'll publish their games on Steam, especially when they are doing well on EGS. And games like Alan Wake 2 will do well on EGS.
But in any case, as I said in multiple occasions, it's just a personal guess, not what it's going to happen in reality.
Pretty much this.Assuming any of those games theyre putting up full dev costs for ever release elsewhere (and if devs still own the rights, it's possible), I think we've seen enough evidence that such games will do okay to good on EGS and sell like crazy as soon as they come out elsewhere. People will si out any exclusion period if there's a glimmer of truth to releasing elsewhere. Just like this place and Bloodborne on pc.